A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
